JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 27, 2014 14:56:02 GMT -8
A nausea-inducing day. But I will be looking hard at some option dip-buying tomorrow. BTW, no dividend increase, which does not surprise me, as we didn't have a full fiscal year at the 2.65 div.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jan 27, 2014 14:56:22 GMT -8
Whoo - TIM just admitting NEW products in the pipeline before the END of 2014 to Gene Munster... did I really just hear that??
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jan 27, 2014 14:57:51 GMT -8
thank god for Gene Munster's question... it's all about patience and faith in the new CATEGORIES just promised by Tim for 2014. If not there are plenty other companies to invest in-
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Post by iluvatarmilan on Jan 27, 2014 14:58:13 GMT -8
Whoo - TIM just admitting NEW products in the pipeline before the END of 2014 to Gene Munster... did I really just hear that?? Yes, but it's hardly different from some remarks made by TC on earlier calls right?
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 27, 2014 14:58:15 GMT -8
As far as I can tell, OPPIE just said iPhone & Ipad channel inventory within our target range of four to six weeks on a look-back basis. THEY HAVE CAUGHT UP.IMHO: This is very important. If Apple were EVIL, (THEY ARE NOT!) they would have produced extra sales via channel inventory to boost sales this quarter against next quarter. The results are the same: good or evil. my point is- what happens if 50million chinese people decide to buy iphones. I feel like it's tough to give a tight range for a quarter with such a large new introduction of customers. I think also that's why analysts guidance expectation was so high. IMHO: The number I keep seeing is 15-30 million for the ENTIRE year.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 27, 2014 14:59:49 GMT -8
Please TIM! we need these new products categories.... "Our customers are going to love what we're going to do...." Is that what we have left, a HOPE of a new category...? Listening to this c.c. there are a few bright spots, esp. the growth in emerging markets percentages. when will that be? The market is clearly skeptical..as to timing and execution of this management team. I wonder if the rumored TV software game store update could be a catalyst, at least in showing the PROMISE of a full fledged ultra HD TV product... Plus, he's shoehorned everything into the end of the year. Whatever happened to smoothing out earnings? The Apple faithful always had hope/anticipation of something new around the corner. Tim's words are getting very stale. Really at a loss here.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 27, 2014 15:01:31 GMT -8
8 minutes ago ReplyQuotePost by vitalogy80 on 8 minutes ago 11 minutes ago cbingle said: $51.5 B in Rev, $13.22 in EPS This is Deagol's forecast for Q2 (Mar qtr) a few days ago. He has been out to lunch for 6 quarters like most amateur analysts... And this is hobby/life. I remember him getting on this board a week or so ago and "nicely" bitching at my comments of him being overly optimistic for the last 6 quarters. He projected a Q1 EPS of $14.98 for Q1. You should ask for your money back from him then... I have been to Red's school of seeing the best in people. I am a believer... Down 50 plus large after hours and much happier now. Thanks Red I'm sad for you cbingle. Really, I am.....
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jan 27, 2014 15:02:43 GMT -8
Whoo - TIM just admitting NEW products in the pipeline before the END of 2014 to Gene Munster... did I really just hear that?? Yes, but it's hardly different from some remarks made by TC on earlier calls right? possibly, but it seems the TIME frame is being pressed by Gene Munster, and Tim is willing to acknowledge that time frame. Gene was very specific in the WAY he phrased his question, i.e. "new categories, vs. new 'iterations' of current products" I'd have to read other transcripts for the exact previous quotes, but as we know Apple wants to "surprise and delight" their customers (at the expense of us current shareholders...) I will be very curious to see what the anaylst community does tomorrow - (i.e. does a beat on top and bottom line, and promise of a new category in 2014) warrant a DOWNGRADE? ? methinks not -
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 27, 2014 15:10:25 GMT -8
Apple beat on top and bottom line, and the media leads with "weak iPhone sales." Amazing anyone can call 51 million of anything sold in 90 days "weak." I don't think Apple should break down sales anymore. And if someone stabbed Colin Gillis on live TV, I'd spend $59.95 for the PPV broadcast. I strongly agree with your first 3 comments, JD. And, if I'd ever watched Colin Gillis, I'm sure I'd agree with the 4th one as well.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 27, 2014 15:11:14 GMT -8
thank god for Gene Munster's question... it's all about patience and faith in the new CATEGORIES just promised by Tim for 2014. If not there are plenty other companies to invest in- Exactly, if you don't keep the faith with Apple here, you should make sure you are not long and you really should stop the negative bullshit. They beat earnings and revenue expectations but because Apple is doomed, the panic sets in........been following this board for 3 or 4 years and it still amazes me how some of us get nasty and fall on their swords. I am down more than 6 figures in afterhours. Suck it up buttercups!
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Post by iluvatarmilan on Jan 27, 2014 15:11:43 GMT -8
I'm not very optimistic about analysts responses. IIRC there have been numerous upgrades last Q; these might've been driven by hopes of growth resuming in Q2 - not unreasonable in light of adding CHL. As Tim implied, growth might still return, but at least for the current quarter, not through the current product line-up.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 27, 2014 15:13:13 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 27, 2014 15:20:00 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 27, 2014 15:23:45 GMT -8
been following this board for 3 or 4 years and it still amazes me how some of us get nasty and fall on their swords. I really don't see the point in the circular firing squad that goes on here. Were all on the same team. What is this, a GOP primary debate? So then like 7 or 8 figures? You and Appledoc should launch a sensitivity training school together.
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Post by geraci on Jan 27, 2014 15:31:05 GMT -8
Where do we open tomorrow? I'm guessing ~5% lower than yesterday's close (~ $518), but I may just be hopeful. What do you think?
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 27, 2014 15:39:55 GMT -8
thank god for Gene Munster's question... it's all about patience and faith in the new CATEGORIES just promised by Tim for 2014. If not there are plenty other companies to invest in- Exactly, if you don't keep the faith with Apple here, you should make sure you are not long and you really should stop the negative bullshit. They beat earnings and revenue expectations but because Apple is doomed, the panic sets in........been following this board for 3 or 4 years and it still amazes me how some of us get nasty and fall on their swords. I am down more than 6 figures in afterhours. Suck it up buttercups! As someone who is also down more than 6 figures (7, JD) in after-hours, I agree with you (well, except for the "Suck it up" part ). Which is why we're invested LONG Apple stock. I will never understand why folks who decry analysts and Wall Street as anti-Apple, continue to make short term bets, because that's what they are, that the stock will rise or fall in a manner which will increase their wealth.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 27, 2014 15:52:58 GMT -8
11.5 billion in deferred revenues....
This should help with building some floor expectations after the Wall Street folks crunch numbers tonight.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 27, 2014 16:03:14 GMT -8
What PE does a non-growing company deserve? This sounds like a controversial question but I mean it honestly.
They made the same profit as they did last year (apart from buyback), and they're guiding to another flat quarter. We all say a new product will make EPS start growing again, but as I said yesterday about their great December quarter, perhaps they need to fire on every cylinder even to retain the *same* level of income a year from now.
So, what PE does a non-growing cash-creating behemoth deserve?
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Post by cbingle on Jan 27, 2014 16:03:54 GMT -8
about an hour ago ReplyQuotePost by Red Shirted Ensign on about an hour ago
about an hour ago cbingle said: 8 minutes ago ReplyQuotePost by vitalogy80 on 8 minutes ago
11 minutes ago cbingle said: $51.5 B in Rev, $13.22 in EPS
This is Deagol's forecast for Q2 (Mar qtr) a few days ago. He has been out to lunch for 6 quarters like most amateur analysts...
And this is hobby/life.
I remember him getting on this board a week or so ago and "nicely" bitching at my comments of him being overly optimistic for the last 6 quarters. He projected a Q1 EPS of $14.98 for Q1.
You should ask for your money back from him then...
I have been to Red's school of seeing the best in people. I am a believer...
Down 50 plus large after hours and much happier now. Thanks Red
I'm sad for you cbingle. Really, I am.....
Don't be sad. I am one happy camper. GLTA
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Post by cbingle on Jan 27, 2014 16:08:52 GMT -8
I'm sad for you cbingle. Really, I am.....
Don't be sad. I am one happy camper. GLTA
Evidently you thought I was being facetious...not the case at all.
I will leave this message board in peace. Again, thanks Red for being fair with me.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Jan 27, 2014 16:10:02 GMT -8
thank god for Gene Munster's question... it's all about patience and faith in the new CATEGORIES just promised by Tim for 2014. If not there are plenty other companies to invest in- Exactly, if you don't keep the faith with Apple here, you should make sure you are not long and you really should stop the negative bullshit. They beat earnings and revenue expectations but because Apple is doomed, the panic sets in........been following this board for 3 or 4 years and it still amazes me how some of us get nasty and fall on their swords. I am down more than 6 figures in afterhours. Suck it up buttercups! The source of my negative bullshit are Tim Cook and Peter Oppenheimer's elation and extreme enthusiasm about the future, and then in the next breath providing guidance that is below last years. AND then, refusing to provide any color or timelines about future products. We've been waiting a LONG TIME for these new products and services (at least 2 years for the so called Apple Tv and the so called iPayment), that Tim is so excited about, way too long to still have no clarity about any of them. Where are they Tim? It ain't cool to just talk about it. And, yet, we don't even get that. This is the information that non-fanboy Apple investors want and without these, the stock will get punished. It was a SHIT SHOW, and their proud of it. How dense can they continue to be? WTF! From past experience, I've learned my lesson about the dynamic duo and what to expect from them on earnings conference calls, so I loaded up on bear put spreads before earnings to hedge my longs. Thank god I did, they saved my bacon. At least the dynamic duo is one thing, and thats predictable.. The only sure bet now with AAPL, is to make sure your short exposure is in place when Tim and Pete are going to be on an earnings CC.
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Post by Grover on Jan 27, 2014 16:11:01 GMT -8
11.5 billion in deferred revenues.... This should help with building some floor expectations after the Wall Street folks crunch numbers tonight. If you would be so kind, is that deferral a cumulative number or just for this quarter? (would be huge) Also, I know this is related to software, but exactly why is it deferred? When will the deferred revenue be recognized? Thanks much
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 27, 2014 16:12:39 GMT -8
What PE does a non-growing company deserve? This sounds like a controversial question but I mean it honestly. They made the same profit as they did last year (apart from buyback), and they're guiding to another flat quarter. We all say a new product will make EPS start growing again, but as I said yesterday about their great December quarter, perhaps they need to fire on every cylinder even to retain the *same* level of income a year from now. So, what PE does a non-growing cash-creating behemoth deserve? This has been mentioned so many times BUT: If Apple produces $45-50 earnings per share with $120-150 in cash outstanding, Apple can increase dividends to EQUAL EPS. THAT would probably help increase the price of AAPL.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 27, 2014 16:29:59 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 27, 2014 16:34:54 GMT -8
From the earnings call: Nearly every team in then NFL uses iPads as playbooks.BUTwww.microsoft.com/surface/en-us/nflChanging the game. On the sidelines and on the field, Surface is helping the NFL do more. Through a multi-year technology sponsorship, Microsoft and the NFL are working together to make the game safer for players, more manageable for teams, and more enjoyable for fans.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2014 16:43:46 GMT -8
From the earnings call: Nearly every team in then NFL uses iPads as playbooks.BUTa href="http://postimg.org/image/akc6wdy9p/"] [/a] [/quote This is right in line with celebrities endorsing Samsung and tweeting it out from their iPhones....seen this movie before.
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Post by zzmac on Jan 27, 2014 16:45:15 GMT -8
From the earnings call: Nearly every team in then NFL uses iPads as playbooks.BUT[/quote This is right in line with celebrities endorsing Samsung and tweeting it out from their iPhones....seen this movie before. At least they're smart enough to tie in with the Super Bowl Champs.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 27, 2014 16:49:49 GMT -8
What PE does a non-growing company deserve? This sounds like a controversial question but I mean it honestly. They made the same profit as they did last year (apart from buyback), and they're guiding to another flat quarter. We all say a new product will make EPS start growing again, but as I said yesterday about their great December quarter, perhaps they need to fire on every cylinder even to retain the *same* level of income a year from now. So, what PE does a non-growing cash-creating behemoth deserve? Impossible to answer. Never been seen before.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 27, 2014 17:01:32 GMT -8
What PE does a non-growing company deserve? This sounds like a controversial question but I mean it honestly. They made the same profit as they did last year (apart from buyback), and they're guiding to another flat quarter. We all say a new product will make EPS start growing again, but as I said yesterday about their great December quarter, perhaps they need to fire on every cylinder even to retain the *same* level of income a year from now. So, what PE does a non-growing cash-creating behemoth deserve? Impossible to answer. Never been seen before. I suppose you could argue that the P/E should reflect the value of the reinvested cash because if the cash was invested in the business lines it would not generate growth (additional value)... Reinvested cash would normally be 5-6% but in today's world less...Inflation's effect on the value of fixed assets would also go into the mix...I suppose you could, rediculously, look for a 7-8 P/E.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Jan 27, 2014 17:25:11 GMT -8
From the earnings call: Nearly every team in then NFL uses iPads as playbooks.BUTa href="http://postimg.org/image/akc6wdy9p/"] [/a] [/quote This is right in line with celebrities endorsing Samsung and tweeting it out from their iPhones....seen this movie before. Yep, we have. We know the facts. But in the world of public perception, facts don't matter unless they're communicated in a digestible manner. And, since Apple rests it reputation on facts without support of a PR campaign, Apple will lose the PR battle. It's apparent that Tim Cook doesn't understand Public Relations or how the public perceives Apple. If he did, he'd put a muzzle on his accountant delivering non-finacial information on the earnings conference calls. [/quote]
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