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Post by nagrani on Jan 27, 2014 20:29:37 GMT -8
I want to wish everyone a happy belated Mac 30th bday!!
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Post by bryanyc on Jan 27, 2014 20:32:01 GMT -8
Where's " the Pom Pom" crowd. Stand up and state your case. Easy to critique my shortcomings, but no guts to defend yours. It's OK. I will not judge you. The Pom Pom crowd has been wiped out in the last year. There are only those who believe that Apple still can innovate again and save the growth bacon and those who don't think that this is in the cards. Actually, there is a negative consensus on a number of boards about if Apple can turn around this flatlining of growth. We might have to wait 9 months to get an initial answer. In the meantime, the management is not doing such a great job projecting confidence and panache. Tomorrow is going to be a difficult day...
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,574
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Post by mark on Jan 27, 2014 21:05:41 GMT -8
How the F do they figure revenue to be flat YoY in Q2? That's baffling. Why baffling? They already have 26 days worth of data!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2014 21:15:52 GMT -8
Where's " the Pom Pom" crowd. Stand up and state your case. Easy to critique my shortcomings, but no guts to defend yours. It's OK. I will not judge you. Hey, it's been a rough day for everyone, so how 'bout you stop the fucking trolling for a while, K? +1. And for the record, if Apple could ignore units sold on the conference call, WS might not treat this company like some fungus between the toes; Don't forget that it reported at the high-end of sales guidance and beat on gross margin, The December quarter was SOLID. March guidance was light and there's no denying the disappointment in the context of our expectations, which IS part of the problem. I hope in the future we see fewer "analysts" hijacking the narrative of this Company with their focusing on units sold of product X. Apple is MUCH more than that. I stopped giving PED #s a couple years ago, and I hope others begin to see that it's counterproductive. Finally, Peter and Tim SHOULD care about the stock price and I think they do. From most accounts, their enthusiasm wasn't very convincing on the conference call.
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Jan 27, 2014 21:42:45 GMT -8
Where's " the Pom Pom" crowd. Stand up and state your case. Easy to critique my shortcomings, but no guts to defend yours. It's OK. I will not judge you. Look just because you weren't in the know enough to sell your remaining "1500" shares don't lay it off on us. I can understand your whining but you left the 75k on the table. So put on your big boy shirt, accept responsibility and try to act like an adult. You are not on my list of people that I have to justify my actions to so judge away----you are all by yourself in that courtroom.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 27, 2014 22:06:58 GMT -8
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Post by geraci on Jan 27, 2014 22:40:49 GMT -8
Thanks, Red. That is a good summary article.
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Post by macoz on Jan 27, 2014 22:45:40 GMT -8
I posted this on the Braeburn Group: We really need to do a spreadsheet to understand the impact that Deferred revenue has on the results. We have an opportunity to calculate the impact the additional deferred revenue charge of $5 and $20 for the free software upgrade has on the results for FY2014. My quick and dirty calculations shows that Revenue and Net income was impacted by over $530 million in Q1FY2014. In Q2FY2014 the impact will be about $345 million. For Q2 I assumed the same number of units for sales of iPhones, iPads, iPods and macs as in Q2FY2013. If sales numbers are higher the impact will be larger. Taking these figures into account maybe Apple’s results are not that bad. iPhone sales are slowing but that is probably indicative of maturing markets. I will try to upload a spreadsheet soon.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 27, 2014 22:47:01 GMT -8
Where's " the Pom Pom" crowd. Stand up and state your case. Easy to critique my shortcomings, but no guts to defend yours. It's OK. I will not judge you. Look just because you weren't in the know enough to sell your remaining "1500" shares don't lay it off on us. I can understand your whining but you left the 75k on the table. So put on your big boy shirt, accept responsibility and try to act like an adult. You are not on my list of people that I have to justify my actions to so judge away----you are all by yourself in that courtroom. Maybe he's referring to me? Just getting caught up here after going to a "coach development" meeting for the local baseball association and taking the boys to a pitching clinic. Many of us here do have a life. What is the problem cbingle, is your ACB on your remaining shares $700? Still don't see the need for the vitriol. As a foreigner, I have never understood the U.S's need to attack their "best" companies. Too many vested interests I guess. Still waving my Pom Poms. Very disappointed with the SEC over the years and the ability of companies like Amazon to trade at outrageous valuations. If you take a step back and look at Apple the way people look at other companies you can only see that things are going very well with the company. Ahhh, but expectations and the need for instant gratification!
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Jan 28, 2014 0:07:07 GMT -8
I would have responded earlier to the call out to the "Pom Pom" crowd but I was using an old pair of reading glasses and thought he said "Porn Porn". I admit it didn't make a lot of sense but I just wrote it off to the unsettling effects of the drop in price. It did get me to keep reading until I figured it out.
I thought things went pretty well actually. The long term investors saw another quarter of record growth and the traders got some volatility so they can make some money. It is hard sometimes to notice and value the fundamental changes that drive the stock in the long term. I doubled my position when apple switched to Intel in Macs. At the time they had a 3 .75 market share in PCs. It was inevitable that it would double and double again so I bought. I bought again when FaceTime was introduced. If you travel internationally, you know how this has revolutionized international phone calls. Neither of these things seemed that big at the time, but they had a underlying power to change the fundamentals. China Mobile is like that. You cannot add 700 million potential customers and not have it make a difference. So yea, I'll pick up the Pom poms for the long term outlook.
In the short term, I do not get it. If you are a trader, you should know how to make money going up or going down. The only time you get to complain is when the stock doesn't move, and even then you should be selling calls or puts. Personally, the drop lets me buy back some calls and save some money on taxes. There is always the potential to win in this zero sum game. If you don't like the game, buy and hold or just don't play. If you do play and lose, it is not the board, or your critics, or evil overlords or Tim Cook who was responsible for your loss.
The board is a valuable source of information and analysis, but more than that it is a group of people who support each other when things go bad and celebrate each other's successes. I hope we continue to do so,
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Post by appledoc on Jan 28, 2014 2:05:52 GMT -8
How the F do they figure revenue to be flat YoY in Q2? That's baffling. Why baffling? They already have 26 days worth of data! Yes, but why? Less devices? Lower ASP products? Both are hard to believe with China Mobile add, iPhone mix heavily in favor of 5S and iPad YoY comparison being a new iPad Air/retina mini versus a stale iPad/brand new mini (lower ASP mix. I just don't get it.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Jan 28, 2014 2:25:09 GMT -8
Why baffling? They already have 26 days worth of data! Yes, but why? Less devices? Lower ASP products? Both are hard to believe with China Mobile add, iPhone mix heavily in favor of 5S and iPad YoY comparison being a new iPad Air/retina mini versus a stale iPad/brand new mini (lower ASP mix. I just don't get it. The only things I can think of are 1) they cannot build enough to meet the demand from CM, or 2) the CM demand won't show up until CM gets the LTE network rolled out so we see it later in the year. I agreed though Doc, that made me wonder too
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Post by mcharliem on Jan 28, 2014 3:57:53 GMT -8
On these conference calls, Cook is required to be truthful, and pretty much nothing else. I think I'm in the minority here, but I love the fact that Apple doesn't care about its stock price at all. It's one of the primary reasons I invest in the company. False dilemma is false. It's about sacrificing short term pain for long term gain.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 28, 2014 4:24:36 GMT -8
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Post by greedynoob on Jan 28, 2014 4:42:44 GMT -8
If you do play and lose, it is not the board, or your critics, or evil overlords or Tim Cook who was responsible for your loss. Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner! If you had bought the right positions yesterday (FYI, I did not), you would be looking at cashing in HUGE returns today!
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jan 28, 2014 10:35:44 GMT -8
As someone who is also down more than 6 figures (7, JD) in after-hours, I agree with you (well, except for the "Suck it up" part ). Which is why we're invested LONG Apple stock. I will never understand why folks who decry analysts and Wall Street as anti-Apple, continue to make short term bets, because that's what they are, that the stock will rise or fall in a manner which will increase their wealth. For the record, I went into earnings with no positions other than long-held common and some small, long-held LEAP spreads in my IRA. But I do have to say, I am getting sick of the "we're all about customers" bullshit on earnings calls. Tim, you have a fiduciary duty to shareholders. Earnings calls are about shareholders. How about mentioning them once in a while to signify you understand this duty and give a shit? Some of the shit they said on that call made me cringe. It's bullshit they tank it on missing guidance set by analyst tools while hitting all other metrics but fucking eh, I agree, how bout at least faking you give a shit. Some here could have done a better job mitigating this disaster clusterfuck. Just a little bitter.
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