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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2013 16:58:05 GMT -8
CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS, CAN'T LOSE! GO IRISH ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 16:58:40 GMT -8
Hey! AAPL deserves a 25 multiple and you know it! yeah I could make a 200-point upwave work somehow
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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 17:02:05 GMT -8
IMHO it is basically a repeat of last year. Few additional factors but basically the uncertainty of the qtr (I.e are they gonna miss, if not how much they gonna blow it out with two missed qtrs behind us?). It's the same shit as last year. Add a bunch of tax excuse selling by brokers so brokers can make commissions on their clients leaving and most likely coming back I don't believe 200 points was all tax selling or all u certainty but the tax issue gave a lot of people a lot of reasons to sell or recommend it. Like most things in life, it's rarely the extreme answer but somewhere in the middle or a bit of each.
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Post by saydee on Jan 7, 2013 17:03:15 GMT -8
Print A A A All Content and Data provided by Third-Parties — Terms of Use Samsung sees Q4 profit at $8.3 bln on Note sales, components REUTERS 7:14 PM ET 1/7/13 * Q4 operating profit estimated at record 8.8 trln won * Q4 sales estimated at 56 trln won * Analysts predict handset division profit at 5.8 trln won * Strong handset pipeline, chip recovery to lift 2013 profit - analysts * Shares open 1 pct lower (Adds analyst quote, background, shares) SEOUL, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics(SSNLF), the world leader in mobiles and memory chips, said it likely earned a quarterly profit of $8.3 billion, as it sold close to 500 handsets every minute and as demand picked up for the flat screens it makes for mobile devices, including those for rival Apple Inc(AAPL) products. That run of five straight record quarters may end in January-March on weak seasonal demand, though a strong pipeline of smartphones - the South Korean group's biggest earner - and improving chip prices have eased concerns that earnings growth could slow this year, powering Samsung shares to record levels. While Apple(AAPL) rolled out just a single new smartphone, the iPhone 5, last year globally, Samsung bombarded the market with 37 variants tweaked for regional and consumer tastes, from high-end smartphones to cheaper low-end models. By comparison, Taiwan'sHTC Corp(HTCXF) released 18 models, Nokia(NOK) 9 and LG Electronics(LGEAF) 24. Samsung, valued at close to $230 billion, gave its October-December earnings guidance on Tuesday, ahead of the full earnings release expected by Jan. 25. A HIGH NOTE Shipments of Samsung's flagship Galaxy S III, which overtook the iPhone 4S in the third quarter to become the world's best-selling smartphone, are likely to have slipped to around 15 million in the last quarter from 18 million in July-September. But estimated sales of around 8 million Galaxy Note II phone-cum-tablets, or 'phablets', should more than make up for that - pushing overall smartphone shipments to around 63 million, analysts estimate. "The Note was selling well, boosting fourth-quarter profit, while iPhone 5 sales were less than expected," said Song Myung-sub, an analyst at HI Investment & Securities. "Samsung's profit will drop in the current quarter because of decreased phone profits. It will launch its next Galaxy S model only in March or April so, without new models, phone sales prices will fall in the current quarter. For the whole year, Samsung will launch new models faster than Apple(AAPL) and will continue to have the upper hand in the smartphone market." There has been increased speculation that Samsung will launch the next version of its Galaxy S in the first quarter, possibly with an unbreakable screen and full high-definition quality resolution boasting 440 pixels per inch, as well as a better camera and a more powerful processor. "Samsung's smartphone shipments are likely to grow even in a seasonally weak first quarter. The early launch of the Galaxy S IV would drive second-quarter growth momentum," said BNP Paribas Securities analyst Peter Yu, who predicts Samsung's 2013 operating profit will grow 25 percent to almost $35 billion.Yu was speaking ahead of the company's guidance on Tuesday. Samsung is forecast to raise its smartphone sales by 35 percent and widen its lead over Apple(AAPL) this year, driven by its diversified product line-up, said Neil Mawston, Executive Director at market researcher Strategy Analytics, which forecasts Samsung will sell 290 million smartphones this year, up from a projected 215 million in 2012. Apple's (AAPL) smartphone sales are projected to reach 180 million this year, up by a third from last year's 135 million. Kim Sung-in, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, predicted Samsung would ship 320 million smartphones this year and sales of its tablets would double to 32 million. "Although seasonal demand is weak in the first quarter, I expect Samsung's sales will exceed 53 trillion won and operating profit to be around 8.3 trillion won because of demand for semiconductor and IT products," Kim said. STRONG NUMBERS Samsung said its October-December operating profit jumped 89 percent to 8.8 trillion won from a year ago, a Reuters survey of 16 analysts showed. That is 8.6 percent higher than its previous record of 8.1 trillion won in July-September. Analysts expect profits from the mobile division to increase slightly to around 5.8 trillion won from the previous quarter's 5.63 trillion won - and more than double from last year's level. A recovery in chip prices and flat screens should also have boosted component earnings, propelled by booming sales of mobiles carrying Samsung's chips, micro-processors and flat screens. Reflecting the upbeat outlook, shares in Samsung, Asia's most valuable technology stock, last week hit a life high of 1.584 million won($1,500). The stock gained 44 percent in 2012, easily outpacing a 9 percent rise on the broader Korean market and topping Apple's(AAPL) 31 percent increase. The shares were down around 0.9 percent in early trading on Tuesday. Samsung, LG Electronics(LGEAF) and four Taiwan companies were last week fined millions of dollars for allegedly manipulating liquid crystal display panel prices in China in 2001-06, the state-run news agency Xinhua reported. (Reporting by Hyun-joo Jin and Joyce Lee; Editing by Ian Geoghegan)
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jan 7, 2013 17:04:26 GMT -8
Interesting ;-) AMZN Put Volume: 28,872 contracts Call Volume: 29,302 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 Read into that what you will. First time I've looked at all three. AAPL was at .98:1 when it went into September's tailspin. I'm tempted to take a Put Spread flyer on AMZN for April. I am similarly tempted. However I don't have the balls to short the damn thing, that's slaughtered everyone who's tried it in recent years.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 7, 2013 17:31:53 GMT -8
I have to tell you guys why I think ND wins tonight, yesterday I saw a commercial for a book/dvd celebrating ND's undefeated season. yep, I think the fix is in. Are you suggesting Notre Dame football is corrupt?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 17:37:17 GMT -8
Welcome Saydee to AFB 2.
The board custom for this folder is one thread per day. Its likely that our Lady-in-Chief "Lovey" (also known as iPad) will merge this to another thread.
Samsung is worse rival than Packers vs. the Bears.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2013 17:37:32 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 7, 2013 17:38:06 GMT -8
AAPL was at .98:1 when it went into September's tailspin. I'm tempted to take a Put Spread flyer on AMZN for April. I am similarly tempted. However I don't have the balls to short the damn thing, that's slaughtered everyone who's tried it in recent years. IMHO, don't.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 18:02:55 GMT -8
I am similarly tempted. However I don't have the balls to short the damn thing, that's slaughtered everyone who's tried it in recent years. IMHO, don't. I shorted AMZN once and made out well. It was a small position and I made 400% BUT only after listening to the previous Conf call and monitoring estimates over the next qtr (that didn't change for the next one). This qtr is risky cause you don't know how Xmas will be for them (but the estimates are high). Next qtr I.e apr earning release looks very tempting depending on how they do this qtr. I base all of this on the the next 3 qtrs estimates and IMHO they are not going to meet it unless of course estimates are lowered.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 18:09:22 GMT -8
Is that supposedly independent analyst _cheering_ I hear? Shamefully transparent. "Holding off" iPhone? Sales estimates that don't even make sense in the context of Apple's guidance? First of all, especially if there's only two big names in town, BOTH can grow, hell, even thrive. I won't bother with the rest. Not worth my time debunking nonsense. We know better over here.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 7, 2013 18:14:46 GMT -8
Is that supposedly independent analyst _cheering_ I hear? Shamefully transparent. "Holding off" iPhone? Sales estimates that don't even make sense in the context of Apple's guidance? First of all, especially if there's only two big names in town, BOTH can grow, hell, even thrive. I won't bother with the rest. Not worth my time debunking nonsense. We know better over here. It states directly that there were "lower than expected iPhone 5 sales" due to the maps issue. Really....lower than whose expectations? In edit: Should Notte Dame be playing in this game?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 7, 2013 18:14:50 GMT -8
I shorted AMZN once and made out well. AMZN charts looking very bullish from TA and EW perspective. It may soon consolidate a bit, but IMHO, this is not the time to short it, as there's too high a probability for one more leg up.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2013 18:18:09 GMT -8
Is that supposedly independent analyst _cheering_ I hear? Shamefully transparent. "Holding off" iPhone? Sales estimates that don't even make sense in the context of Apple's guidance? First of all, especially if there's only two big names in town, BOTH can grow, hell, even thrive. I won't bother with the rest. Not worth my time debunking nonsense. We know better over here. It states directly that there were "lower than expected iPhone 5 sales" due to the maps issue. Really....lower than whose expectations? It's gotten to a point that ANY news service I pull up is just so tainted...I mean, this story is from Bloomberg...should be somewhat balanced and it's ridiculously slanted. And here comes the WSJ article - a quarterly ritual of "are the subsidies ending by the carriers???" .... how many times is this going to get dusted off and put out there yet again : blogs.wsj.com/digits/2013/01/07/could-verizon-att-follow-t-mobile-in-ending-subsidies/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 18:19:54 GMT -8
Sheesh. Strong daily chart! AND weekly! If AMZN bull flags/holds up I might buy a frickin' BCS (I do "buy" AMZN now and then.)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 18:22:40 GMT -8
Bloomberg is CNBC-like in its treatment of Apple. And though they did scoop Steve's poor health and Forstall's personality conflicts, that doesn't mean anything in terms of their reporting on Apple, which is decidedly mixed.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 18:26:44 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2013 18:28:45 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 18:30:53 GMT -8
My rusty 2 cents re: GS note
1) Not necessarily
2) Better product cadence, the iPad mini and bringing iPhone back to a June/July thing over time would create that impression
3) Completely content-dependent
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2013 18:32:20 GMT -8
My rusty 2 cents re: GS note 1) Not necessarily 2) Better product cadence and bringing iPhone back to a June/July thing over time would create that impression 3) Completely content-dependent I think the piece is positive and could actually see all three ... they are all good things...but you are right that we just don't know yet.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2013 18:33:10 GMT -8
My Irish are getting their butts kicked by Saban the Magician....ugh! So annoying.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 18:38:23 GMT -8
I shorted AMZN once and made out well. AMZN charts looking very bullish from TA and EW perspective. It may soon consolidate a bit, but IMHO, this is not the time to short it, as there's too high a probability for one more leg up. You think even for the Apr earnings? Honestly I am thinking about shorting them in Apr but only after what I hear and see for the next 30-60 days or so. Also if I do it will only be a small position as in I have no issue loosing it.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 19:12:15 GMT -8
Is that supposedly independent analyst _cheering_ I hear? Shamefully transparent. "Holding off" iPhone? Sales estimates that don't even make sense in the context of Apple's guidance? First of all, especially if there's only two big names in town, BOTH can grow, hell, even thrive. I won't bother with the rest. Not worth my time debunking nonsense. We know better over here. "Samsung said its October-December operating profit jumped 89 percent to 8.8 trillion won from a year ago, just ahead of a forecast for 8.7 trillion won by 16 analysts surveyed by Reuters" If have my numbers right (50/50) then they beat analyst opinion by a, wait for it, wait for it, by just less than 658 million $
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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 19:25:29 GMT -8
So although figures are difficult to come by (expected at the end of the month) they sold 15 million Galaxy IIIs in this qtr. Although according to reports they did sell some 62 million phones all combined.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 19:36:50 GMT -8
Samsung in its press conference at CES today said that 30 million galaxy 3S units have been sold to date.
This official number is seemingly at odds to all those Samsung analysts reporting today.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 19:38:32 GMT -8
Is that supposedly independent analyst _cheering_ I hear? Shamefully transparent. "Holding off" iPhone? Sales estimates that don't even make sense in the context of Apple's guidance? First of all, especially if there's only two big names in town, BOTH can grow, hell, even thrive. I won't bother with the rest. Not worth my time debunking nonsense. We know better over here. "Samsung said its October-December operating profit jumped 89 percent to 8.8 trillion won from a year ago, just ahead of a forecast for 8.7 trillion won by 16 analysts surveyed by Reuters" If have my numbers right (50/50) then they beat analyst opinion by a, wait for it, wait for it, by just less than 658 million $ This is just an "earnings preview" they hedge the numbers by saying it could be a few hundred billion won difference once the audited results are out later n the month.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 7, 2013 19:51:30 GMT -8
But what is the net income?
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 7, 2013 19:54:06 GMT -8
It states directly that there were "lower than expected iPhone 5 sales" due to the maps issue. Really....lower than whose expectations? Would Samsung know iPhone sales due to being a supplier or is the chip they supply also provided by another supplier?
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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 19:54:14 GMT -8
The details and facts of the following statement are likely to get lost but I see 15 + 8 (23) should not, "make up for that" and don't equal nearly 63 million. So even the second best smartphone(s) will not likely beat market share of Apple's premium high cost phone that supposedly can't reach a mass market. Therefore the assumption is the Samsung high end devices are too expensive for the majority of the worldwide unlocked/no contract market and too crap to capture the majority of the high end market. "Shipments of Samsung's flagship Galaxy S III, which overtook the iPhone 4S in the third quarter to become the world's best-selling smartphone, are likely to have slipped to around 15 million in the last quarter from 18 million in July-September, analysts estimate, but sales of around 8 million Galaxy Note II 'phablets' should more than make up for that - pushing overall smartphone shipments to around 63 million."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 19:55:05 GMT -8
AAPL was at .98:1 when it went into September's tailspin. I'm tempted to take a Put Spread flyer on AMZN for April. Read this today: "A new report from financial services and research firm MacQuarie Capital estimates that Amazon Web Services will earn $19.3 billion in profit this year on $79.4 billion in revenue, growing to $30 billion in profit on $124 billion in revenue by 2015." EDIT: Source was theverge.com article - WHICH WAS COMPLETE BULLSHIT. remind me to NEVER trust any financial news from them again. At least the author fixed the error now. Article now states that AWS may be valued as much as $19 billion as a stand alone entity.
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