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Post by nathanstevens on Sept 16, 2013 6:11:14 GMT -8
Just downloaded IOS7 GM. SIRI is FAST
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aapldamus
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Post by aapldamus on Sept 16, 2013 6:13:56 GMT -8
I can only see sentiment turning around soon if maybe AAPL has some amazing sales # and releases that info next week (instead of the usual, fuck the shareholders, only the product and customer experience matter). As I finished typing this, we just barely nudged above 200 day. Will it hold?
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Post by sponge on Sept 16, 2013 6:20:23 GMT -8
Quick update from the Ceasar Shopps Apple Store in Vegas. Employee reports solid interest in the 5C. He believes sales will surpass last year. Saw a lady buy 8 iPad minis.
A little concerned about the sell off this morning, but not too worried.
Hope to transfer some cash by end of the week and buy up more at these discounts.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 16, 2013 6:35:07 GMT -8
Quick update from the Ceasar Shopps Apple Store in Vegas. Employee reports solid interest in the 5C. He believes sales will surpass last year. Saw a lady buy 8 iPad minis. A little concerned about the sell off this morning, but not too worried. Hope to transfer some cash by end of the week and buy up more at these discounts. SPONGE: We love you! I miss Tommo and ZachBass....
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Post by redinaustin on Sept 16, 2013 6:45:44 GMT -8
Quick update from the Ceasar Shopps Apple Store in Vegas. Employee reports solid interest in the 5C. He believes sales will surpass last year. Saw a lady buy 8 iPad minis. A little concerned about the sell off this morning, but not too worried. Hope to transfer some cash by end of the week and buy up more at these discounts. SPONGE: We love you! I miss Tommo and ZachBass.... Yep
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 6:46:15 GMT -8
Yyyyyyup.
Second Trial of Sentiment may be the next checkpoint - this Friday...
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Post by terps530 on Sept 16, 2013 6:51:17 GMT -8
Quick update from the Ceasar Shopps Apple Store in Vegas. Employee reports solid interest in the 5C. He believes sales will surpass last year. Saw a lady buy 8 iPad minis. A little concerned about the sell off this morning, but not too worried. Hope to transfer some cash by end of the week and buy up more at these discounts. sponge with all due respect, you need to leave the board again in order for aapl (and our accounts) to get back on their feet! sponge stopped posting mid july around 420-430, and then we shot up to 500+, now he comes back and we drop 50 points! and this happened the last 1-2 times he disappeared/appeared too. its for the best!
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 16, 2013 7:14:50 GMT -8
I'm no technician, but it looks like we've crashed through all moving averages and trend lines. Mav knew where to sell - he told me to sell at 505 on iPhone release day. "If you don't like it, sell." Looks like everyone in the world took his advice except for the members of this board
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 7:17:45 GMT -8
Not really a subsidy? No, just a different one burgess.
And since Bloomberg is reporting on Chinese - what of those 3-year actually subsidized deals we'd heard about last year?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 7:18:55 GMT -8
I'm no technician, but it looks like we've crashed through all moving averages and trend lines. Mav knew where to sell - he told me to sell at 505 on iPhone release day. "If you don't like it, sell." Looks like everyone in the world took his advice except for the members of this board Are you trolling me? I (probably) said if you lack conviction, sell. That's not advice and that's not the same. Eh, at least my XOM is up, mildly. No buy point for me yet. Maybe for Apple Inc., though.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 16, 2013 7:35:38 GMT -8
"supply constrained"
hmmmm....
95 different SKUs?
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Post by sponge on Sept 16, 2013 7:42:59 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 7:45:52 GMT -8
Only the media trivialize the probably-not-trivial calibrated LTE band support for various regions. I'm sure if it was easy to throw in 40-band LTE support for any given iPhone, Apple would've done so.
Here's hoping plenty of TD-LTE enabled HK iPhones are being produced.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 7:56:30 GMT -8
Note to self: NEVER, never invest in a company with 1. Too much open interest w/options. 2. Company is target one, two and three for media reporting (largely erroneous) and 3. Price behavior is as follows: Bad news the stock goes down; Good news the stock goes down.
WS has this message for retail investors: We're not going to let you make money on a company that has strong fundamentals and prospects. WS does not want a level playing field, because it doesn't favor them. If the retail investor sucker makes money with a fundamentally sound company with industry leading margins and profits, it's only incidental.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 8:00:50 GMT -8
Anyone know why the stock is getting hit in PM? Is there any news or FUD out? im gonna go with technicals. breach of 50day and sitting right at 200day now? I'm going to go with Fundamentals and suggest that investors weren't pleased with initial pre-order reports out of China.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 8:03:40 GMT -8
No one guarantees you anything in WS, Mercel. Not even reasonable protection from HFT shenanigans.
Brian Hall from Techpinions is kind of a moron.
FalKirk's great, Ben Bajarin's fine, this where's my radically better camera (not just about pixels)/Siri/iCloud/battery whining = hey, you choose to keep those kinda writers, know what you're getting into.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 8:06:55 GMT -8
Just looked at my charts. Initial thought: "WTF!?" Second, more reasoned thought: "Buying opportunity".
EDIT: To clarify, I think we are at the end of a wave 4. As any pre-schooler will tell you, 5 comes next.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 16, 2013 8:08:39 GMT -8
A Thought Experiment:
- Demand for 5s is huge but because of advanced components, apple wasn't able to make very many for the launch. Lets say 2 million. That's why they didn't do preorders with this model -- if they had done preorders they wouldn't have had any for launch weekend. - demand for 5c is solid, but not among early adopter types who go preorder. It's more a like-it-when-you-see-it item. Preorders come in around 2 million. - on launch weekend, lines are crazy. They quickly sell out of their 5s stock, and they sell another 3 million 5Cs, as people see them up close.
Total first wknd sales including preorders: 7 million.
Fundamentals still positive because of all the pent-up demand for 5s, and because the more people see the 5cs, the more they want them. Still, 7 million is seen as a bad number by investors, who were disappointed by last year's 5 million 5's, especially with china and Japan in that initial launch this time. Seen as flatline y/y. Stock tanks to 400 and below.
Plausible? Probability? Alternative predictions?
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Post by Lstream on Sept 16, 2013 8:12:21 GMT -8
No one guarantees you anything in WS, Mercel. Not even reasonable protection from HFT shenanigans. Brian Hall from Techpinions is kind of a moron. FalKirk's great, Ben Bajarin's fine, this where's my radically better camera (not just about pixels)/Siri/iCloud/battery whining = hey, you choose to keep those kinda writers, know what you're getting into. Ya, I am not buying any of this Wall Street conspiracy stuff. Apple's financial performance over the past year, combined with a full scale assault by legit competitors has put this company in "show-me" state. That needs to include revenue, earnings and guidance. Releasing new products does not count anymore, especially when they are line extensions. Yes, there are ridiculous examples out there like Amazon, but their price silliness does not make the case for Apple's valuation. Apple released a decent set of products last week, and now they need to show corresponding results. Until then, the big money is not jumping on the bandwagon. At least IMO.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 16, 2013 8:16:54 GMT -8
No one guarantees you anything in WS, Mercel. Not even reasonable protection from HFT shenanigans. Brian Hall from Techpinions is kind of a moron. FalKirk's great, Ben Bajarin's fine, this where's my radically better camera (not just about pixels)/Siri/iCloud/battery whining = hey, you choose to keep those kinda writers, know what you're getting into. +1 Hopefully we will get some nice sales numbers in a week .... I didn't expect to hear anything great about the 5C .... the 5S is where Apple's technological innovation will shine. Maybe iOS7 will help on Wednesday but until then .... it's gonna suck.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 8:22:45 GMT -8
No one guarantees you anything in WS, Mercel. Not even reasonable protection from HFT shenanigans. Brian Hall from Techpinions is kind of a moron. FalKirk's great, Ben Bajarin's fine, this where's my radically better camera (not just about pixels)/Siri/iCloud/battery whining = hey, you choose to keep those kinda writers, know what you're getting into. Of course there are no guarantees -- that's not even close to my point. My point is there is no discipline with valuation in the stock market and is exacerbated by the dipticks who claim to know something about valuation. WS is an incestuous gaming parlor and let's just accept this fact. BTW, I'm NOT surprised over today's action, as I knew a non-announcement would give WS another opportunity to flog the stock.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 8:29:48 GMT -8
Apple gets to buy the dip again is how I look at it.
Yup, my tinfoil theory - no preorder #s is a major cause of today's slide.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 8:32:34 GMT -8
No one guarantees you anything in WS, Mercel. Not even reasonable protection from HFT shenanigans. Brian Hall from Techpinions is kind of a moron. FalKirk's great, Ben Bajarin's fine, this where's my radically better camera (not just about pixels)/Siri/iCloud/battery whining = hey, you choose to keep those kinda writers, know what you're getting into. Ya, I am not buying any of this Wall Street conspiracy stuff. Apple's financial performance over the past year, combined with a full scale assault by legit competitors has put this company in "show-me" state. That needs to include revenue, earnings and guidance. Releasing new products does not count anymore, especially when they are line extensions. Yes, there are ridiculous examples out there like Amazon, but their price silliness does not make the case for Apple's valuation. Apple released a decent set of products last week, and now they need to show corresponding results. Until then, the big money is not jumping on the bandwagon. At least IMO. Valuation is a relative concept. AMZN is a complete joke. AAPL with a P/E of 11 is lower than MSFT. It's time we stopped making excuses for the B.S.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 8:33:48 GMT -8
Apple gets to buy the dip again is how I look at it. Yup, my tinfoil theory - no preorder #s is a major cause of today's slide. Yep. This piece of news will last for a day -- so much for long range thinking about a Company's valuation.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 16, 2013 8:41:14 GMT -8
Apple gets to buy the dip again is how I look at it. Yup, my tinfoil theory - no preorder #s is a major cause of today's slide. Yep. This piece of news will last for a day -- so much for long range thinking about a Company's valuation. Long range thinking these days means holding the stock overnight Welcome to the blackjack table ... today's hand sucks ... wanna hit ?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 8:45:50 GMT -8
Yep. This piece of news will last for a day -- so much for long range thinking about a Company's valuation. I say maybe a week, but fundamentally similar (myopic) timeframe. There's a buying opportunity somewhere, but who knows if it's today. I'm not sure I'd be convinced even if volume was 20M this point of the day...there's still two "trials of sentiment" to go: Friday lines/5S pre-order monitoring - does anyone expect online supply to last even an hour? (Optional "sub-trial" - worldwide whining if there's no walk-in supply into the weekend.) First weekend of sales progress report - not a given we'll get any updates here either.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 16, 2013 8:45:55 GMT -8
This could be retail exhaustion. This is exactly the darkness we see before a big pop. I just bought back the short leg of 465-470 call spread that expires following Friday from this week.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 16, 2013 8:54:20 GMT -8
Ya, I am not buying any of this Wall Street conspiracy stuff. Apple's financial performance over the past year, combined with a full scale assault by legit competitors has put this company in "show-me" state. That needs to include revenue, earnings and guidance. Releasing new products does not count anymore, especially when they are line extensions. Yes, there are ridiculous examples out there like Amazon, but their price silliness does not make the case for Apple's valuation. Apple released a decent set of products last week, and now they need to show corresponding results. Until then, the big money is not jumping on the bandwagon. At least IMO. Valuation is a relative concept. AMZN is a complete joke. AAPL with a P/E of 11 is lower than MSFT. It's time we stopped making excuses for the B.S. I'm not making excuses for anything. I just don't believe that there is some Wall Street plan or conspiracy to exploit the retail investor using Apple as the vehicle. There are great swaths of the population who believe that the Apple story is over. Until the company makes a convincing argument that this is not true, we get what we have seen over the past week. Whether we call it BS or reality is a personal choice. I call it reality, and one that is not totally undeserved.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 9:00:13 GMT -8
Not totally undeserved is a bit like saying a person is not totally perfect.
Anyway, concrete numbers and earnings reports. Those are the checkpoints that really matter.
If there's good news, it's that Apple had a very similar product logjam this time last year, so we're comparing like with like, though my bias is towards better supply depending on the difficulty of ramping iPhone 5S. If only there were an analyst to check the right questions at the next CC...
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aapldamus
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Post by aapldamus on Sept 16, 2013 9:00:14 GMT -8
My 525/550/575 October Butterflies are currently near worthless, if AAPL can get to ~488 by end of this month, I could escape with -50% loss, or if AAPL can get to ~514 by 2nd week October, exit with 20% gain. Or... something amazing happens and AAPL is around 550 by October expiry, jack pot of ~800%, or neither of the above and -100%.
With this crazy market, who knows what happens next. /endofmutteringtoself
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