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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 21, 2016 9:00:04 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 15, 2016 21:59:31 GMT -8
Please forgive this OT post at the end of a closed-market day. I was at Seatle's wonderful Museum of Flight today when I saw this poster. After I bought the tickets I was amused to realize that years of reading comments on this board from Red Shirted Ensign probably contributed to me deciding that the movie was worth seeing because of the narrator.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 11, 2016 13:49:54 GMT -8
Question of the day... What will you do with your dividend? If reinvesting, what are your target price points? We have no target price points because I suck at picking an AAPL entry point. IRA accounts - All IRA dividends are auto-invested within each of our accounts. Our last auto-invest, for November 2015 dividends, was at $113.76/share. So when I calculate the number of shares our IRA dividends will purchase this time, it appears that we'll get ~20% more shares than we would have if our stock prices was still at 113.76, as it was last November. And yes, that's some considerable consolation to me while our stock price remains lower than it should be. And yes, using my excellent 20-20 hindsight, I could have saved the dividend money from November and bought AAPL with it 3 weeks ago. On the other hand, after I bought it 3 weeks ago, the stock may have dropped another $10 a share and I'd be beating myself up buying too soon. I'm afraid I just don't have enough grey cells left to keep worrying about the rising and falling of the stock price and remain a happily retired person. Trust accounts 1. Since I passed the age of 70.5, the majority of our trust account dividends is used to pay our increased quarterly estimated taxes resulting from my yearly forced selling of AAPL shares from my IRAs due to RMD (Required Minimum Distribution). 2. Any money left after step #1 just goes to normal bill paying
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 10, 2016 20:16:06 GMT -8
>> Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias.
I have a dumb question for you, macwire. I don't know if gtrplyr trades AAPL or is only long the stock. I was unfamiliar with the term, but from what I could find with a search, the term "long side bias" doesn't apply if a person is a long-only stock holder. Are you assuming he trades AAPL by categorizing him as having "long side bias"? >> You're searching for reasons to justify your position.
Again, assuming someone is long-only in a stock, the reasons to justify one's position would probably have to come, IMO, from the company itself, not from the market. >>Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) >> What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on?
I was especially surprised to read these last comments because of the frustration that's been expressed almost every day on this board for so long now. Even though those of us that are long with AAPL stock for a number of years have been through this before we continue to get frustrated every time it happens. And, of course, we're always surprised and pissed when it does. But the traders on the board also seem to be experiencing a great deal of frustration as well. Being an AAPL Long has required patience and confidence in the company for many years now, so this is a somewhat normal situation. But are you indicating that trading AAPL is easier (or even easy) by following your suggestion regarding trends? TIA 1) wasnt really directed specifically to gtrpylr - more to board in general. long side bias as in everyone here is long not short AAPL. I dont know how gtrpylr trades specifically - but I know many people here have eschewed diversification in search of alpha. there is nothing wrong with that but it comes with considerable risk and this is one of those time periods where it is extremely frustrating. I'VE BEEN THERE. in 2013 I searched everything I could to JUSTIFY keeping me in this AAPL position as it plummeting 45% having a severe effect on my life, health, etc...it was physically draining. that experience brought me to spending years of charting, learning, etc...to avoid repeating that process ever again. what i refer to as long side bias is people that continually buy the dip mentality eschewing the price action of the market..almost refusing to see the other potential side of what price action is saying about AAPL. thats what i mean by that 2) any company's goal is to say or do the thing that helps profit the shareholder/owners of the company. 3) nothing is "easy" in the market imo unless you want to be passive money...and there is nothing wrong with that. AT ALL. if you want alpha, you're gonna have to work for it. what IS easier, IMO, is having an open mind to see things both ways and trading a concrete plan (if A then B...if C then D) and sticking to it...keeps you out of trouble, keeps you from averaging down big losers, and keeps you from expending your emotional capital having a plan of HOPE. Thank you so much for giving such a detailed response, macwire. I really appreciate it. During this long stretch when AAPL is mostly going down and sideways, I've been looking through previous years of our AAPL investing online statements and putting the info for each account into a spreadsheet. No particular reason but just because I can't help myself; if I have data, I'm compelled to put it into a table and graph it if I can. One thing I noticed during this effort is that even though we've been buy-and-hold for years, there were several times in the past when I sold shares from our main trust account and from our IRA accounts. It was in the 2007-009 time frame when I decided I would be proactive with our accounts, take advantage of the peaks and valleys of the stock, and sell before it went down and buy back just before it started back up again. Genius, right? The bad part was that the first time I tried it, it worked great. But before I could write a book, detailing my investing breakthrough, I tried it again. And then once more before deciding that I should stick with being long in the stock and leave any other method to others. I'm not a risk taker when it comes to money. Many, many years ago, when I was in my 20's, I remember going into a Lake Tahoe casino and playing the nickel slots until I spent $2 and then walking out. That was as much as I was willing to lose and I'm still that way. And I'm even less willing to bet money on the stock market than I was in the casino. If I consider how much my (and my wife's) accounts are down since AAPLs ATH, I would be very distraught if I considered that money "lost". But I don't. The fact that we've invested in AAPL for years, doesn't mean we didn't buy some shares over $600/share. So, in the earlier 2008-2009 timeframe, when the stock went from just under $200/share down under $90/share, it got our attention. But it came back. Then, in the time period you mentioned, 2013-2014, it went through a similar cycle. We were upset but I guess not to the degree that you were. I was five years retired in 2013 and 71 years old. How many articles are written stressing that folks close to retirement age should play it safe with their investments? The thing of it is though, I feel like we are playing it safe by being totally invested in AAPL since we still have great confidence in the company. However, even though it had big drops in 2008 and 2013 from which it recovered, there's no guarantee that it will come back from here. I just have the conviction that it will and that's what makes the difference, I guess, in being willing to put up with the FUD BS instead of dumping the stock and moving into something else. Plus there's that whole, "buy low, sell high" thing. Anyway, sorry to ramble but thanks again for your thoughtful response and I wish you much good luck in your trading!
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 10, 2016 16:28:20 GMT -8
I have really NEVER understood how the stock market works .... just when you think you can make sense of it something happens just to show you how little you understand .... multiply that feeling x10 and that's where we are today .... High Oil ? Bad for the market ... Low Oil ? Bad for the market ... Fed raising rates ? Good for market ... Fed not raising rates ? Good for the market ..... sheesh ..... lines between the craps table and the market are getting blurrier and blurrier .... AAPL still holding on somewhat .... make me wonder if Apple is supporting the price with purchases or if investors are actually seeing value down here in the low 90's. Cheers to the longs .... Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias. You're searching for reasons to justify your position. Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on? >> Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias.
I have a dumb question for you, macwire. I don't know if gtrplyr trades AAPL or is only long the stock. I was unfamiliar with the term, but from what I could find with a search, the term "long side bias" doesn't apply if a person is a long-only stock holder. Are you assuming he trades AAPL by categorizing him as having "long side bias"? >> You're searching for reasons to justify your position.
Again, assuming someone is long-only in a stock, the reasons to justify one's position would probably have to come, IMO, from the company itself, not from the market. >>Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) >> What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on?
I was especially surprised to read these last comments because of the frustration that's been expressed almost every day on this board for so long now. Even though those of us that are long with AAPL stock for a number of years have been through this before we continue to get frustrated every time it happens. And, of course, we're always surprised and pissed when it does. But the traders on the board also seem to be experiencing a great deal of frustration as well. Being an AAPL Long has required patience and confidence in the company for many years now, so this is a somewhat normal situation. But are you indicating that trading AAPL is easier (or even easy) by following your suggestion regarding trends? TIA
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 8, 2016 12:21:18 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 3, 2016 16:24:10 GMT -8
I want to apologize in advance if my actions today in any way contribute to any further drop in our stock tomorrow or in the future* but I bought 17 more shares at $94.50. Even though, according to many of the FUD writers, Apple is apparently "Doomed", I just couldn't help myself. Cheers to the AAPL Longs! Oh, and also to the Apple optimist(s) on the board!! * Over the last 10-15 years, the occurrences of AAPL trading lower the day after I buy any shares has been too frequent to be a coincidence.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 3, 2016 15:09:05 GMT -8
Now there's one absolutely clueless dude. Lot's of them out there though....I would say the majority of these media types could care less about going deep enough to understand what is really going on. What about Alphabets 5% tax rate in the last quarter? Anyone? No, crickets in the media. Thus, you have to ignore them. Okay I did read this particular article because you pointed it out The only people worth listening to are Bajarin, Dediu, Cybert, etc. Oh, and of course Mav over at Appletree Whenever I read an article from someone like Reeves, Since84, I search the author's name along with "Apple" just to see what his or her history looks like. In this case, I found a link to one of Reeves previous, an "Apple is doomed"-type article, titled, appropriately, “ The iPhone slowdown spells doom for Apple”. No link for that because most of us already know what it contains. However, the THE MACALOPE's take on Reeves commentary IS worth reading, IMO. Hey, what can I say, I'm an easy chuckle? And no, I really don't care that the rumors about Apple cutting orders were correct to a degree. When someone invests for the long term, these sideways or down movements for the stock are just unpleasant blips. Some choppy seas and blustery winds during an otherwise pleasant and rewarding cruise. What's most important during this period is not so much what the stock it doing but what the company is doing and I'm still very pleased with that. www.macworld.com/article/3020552/ios/headline-doom-the-iphone-s-success-dooms-apple.htmlHeadline doom: The iPhone’s success dooms Apple The Macalope | @themacalope Macworld Jan 9, 2016 4:00 AM Ask not for whom the doom bells toll. Seriously, why would you even do that? It’s obviously Apple.Writing for MarketWatch, Jeff Reeves says “The iPhone slowdown spells doom for Apple.” (Tip o’ the antlers to Jim Neal.) Nailed. It. Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research has called for the “completely clueless” Tim Cook, above, to be replaced. And the Macalope has called for the sharp scissors to be taken away from Trip Chowdhry before he hurts himself. Although he’s pretty sure Chowdhry could hurt himself on pudding.…Apple’s stock fell hard in the second half of 2015, and is now down about 25% from its July high. True! Hey, the overall market wouldn’t also be down considerably since July, would it? Who knows? Apparently it’s an unknowable item because it does not appear in this piece. When writing about Apple, it’s important to remove any extraneous contextual information so as to pretend there are no outside factors. That’s just how science works. Any astrologer will tell you that. For starters, it’s important to acknowledge that Apple has little else driving it other than the iPhone.Hey, kids! Let’s do some math! Oh, shut up, it’ll be fun. The iPhone made Apple 63 percent of its revenue in the last reported quarter. 100 minus 63 is 37. It’s true! Look it up. Apple made $51.5 billion in revenue in their most recently reported quarter. If you multiply $51.5 times 0.37 you get $19 billion which is apparently their “little else”. You know how much revenue Microsoft made in total during its most recently reported quarter? $20.4 billion.
Again, sorry, needless perspective and context. The Macalope apologizes profusely. Let’s continue with the caterwauling, brought to you by MarketWatch’s sponsor, Rumors of iPhone Production Cuts. Rumors of iPhone Production Cuts: Don’t bother asking for them by name because no one will put their name to these rumors. But you should totally believe them and sell all your Apple stock because Trip Chowdhry had a burrito-induced fever dream. The “reports” (LOL) that Reeves cites say Apple is cutting iPhone 6s production by 30 percent. You may think “Well, the iPhone 6s is just one of the phones Apple makes and Apple always cuts production headed into the quarter after a big launch. For example, iPhone sales last year dropped 18 percent from the company’s first fiscal quarter to the second. This is just natural.” This is why you are not a writer for MarketWatch, Gladys. We’ve reviewed your samples and, well, while your prose is florid and reactionary, it’s not MarketWatch-level reactionary. We wish you the best of luck in your future endeavors. Which will not include writing for MarketWatch. And I suppose if you’re really reaching for excuses, Apple doesn’t break out devices by model in its SEC filings, and there could theoretically be weak demand for the 6s but robust demand for its older models. But given the mammoth importance of the iPhone, it’s pretty much categorically bad to see rumors of a huge cut in iPhone production. If you’re trying to make sense of this in any way, then you’re “reaching for excuses”. Please, do not raise your hand until all of the tables have been flipped. Is Tim Cook “clueless,” as some claim? Hmm! [Leans forward in easy chair, pulls pipe from mouth, strokes chin thoughtfully, does this until he dies of starvation.] MarketWatch: Asking the hard questions. Sorry, did we say “hard”? We meant “dumb”. That… that was an editing error. Now, follow the bouncing logic: Fears of a China slowdown have been weighing on the market for some time. … That does not bode well for Apple, which is increasingly reliant on China. Apple is doing better and better in China every quarter. Apple’s dependency on China now dooms it.Never get good at anything, kids, because then you will just become dependent upon it and it will doom you. Consider that the Greater China segment of Apple saw 84% sales growth in fiscal 2015. So doomed. OMG. Like, Victor von Doomed. It’s not many companies that can get beat over the head with sales growth. Guess Apple’s just lucky that way.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 1, 2016 12:28:24 GMT -8
I'm thinking it's Chowdry and Wall Street that's insane... Is Apple CEO Tim Cook Insane...or Is Wall Street? (Or is Trip Chowdry of Global Equities Research?) www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/01/is-apple-ceo-tim-cook-insane-or-is-wall-street.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=articleShare buyback programs have been hugely popular in the post-crisis era. Unfortunately, they're one the most misunderstood topics when it comes investing and corporate finance.
Many corporate managements don't understand them (or they act as if they don't) and neither do many Wall Street analysts, despite often having an academic background in finance.
That misunderstanding sparked one analyst, Trip Chowdry of Global Equities Research, to suggest that Apple chief finance officer Luca Maestri and, by implication, CEO Tim Cook, are behaving like lunatics.
Obviously, share buybacks and dividends are not working. And somehow, the current CFO thinks doing the same thing over and over again may generate different results.
Why does Chowdry believe "share buybacks and dividends are not working"? === Apple stock has fallen from $132 to $115, thereby erasing about $110 Billion in shareholder value, and Apple's management has done nothing to address the erosion of shareholder value. Apple's Management Team and Board have embarked on a huge share buyback program, but the buyback program is not working. [...] hareholders have lost $110 Billion. === Indeed, anyone with an Internet connection can observe Apple's stock price on a second-by-second basis. In that context, there is a quick and straightforward litmus test for whether or not a buyback is working: Is the stock higher or lower than it was before the share repurchase program was announced?
The problem is that while this "quick and straightforward" litmus test is quick, it's also completely wrongheaded. Why? The following observation is crucially important:
The first objective of an intelligent share buyback program isn't to raise the company's share price, nor is it simply to reduce the number of shares outstanding. Perhaps that sounds counterintuitive to you; perhaps you even think it's an outright falsehood -- in which case I urge you to think about the following statement:
An intelligent share buyback program is the result of a capital allocation process that identifies the company's own shares as a superior use of shareholders' capital, i.e., repurchasing shares has an expected return that is at least equal to that of the firm's other possible uses of cash (including returning the cash to shareholders via dividends). It comes down to this simple question (simple conceptually, that is): Is the company getting a "good" expected return on its investment if it decides to repurchase its own shares? The answer to that question depends on a comparison between the stock's market price and its intrinsic value.
(If you'd like to learn more about the topic, I strongly recommend you review Warren Buffett's 1999 Chairman's Letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway.)
Apple is actually one of the smartest companies out there in terms of the way in which it thinks about and implements its share repurchase program.
For example, a year ago, when the stock fell 8%, following the release its quarterly results, the company was "aggressive" and "opportunistic" (Tim Cook's words) in buying back $14 billion worth of shares over a two-week period.
Chowdry has it backwards: When it comes to share buybacks, Apple's management are no lunatics. In corporate America at large, and on Wall Street, however, the lunatics have overrun the asylum.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 31, 2016 16:09:14 GMT -8
Say what?
Opinion: Apple has another problem: The iPad is dying By Brett Arends
No wonder I was able to get a great deal on an iPad mini a couple of months ago. Nobody wanted them. --Brett Arends
Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded. --Yogi Berra
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 26, 2016 12:22:48 GMT -8
This just in from the "Grasping at Straws" department. Apparently the only way to top the "Apple Watch is a failure" nonsense is to call a product a failure before it's even announced by Apple. Ridiculous!
Oh, wait..my bad. I see now that there have been reports rumors of "sharp reductions" in the supply chain for the rumored upcoming 4-inch iPhone that's rumored to be named iPhone 5se. OK, everything checks out. Carry on.
Will Apple Sell Less Of The Rumored '5se' Than Expected? Benzinga (Tue 10:23AM EST)
“We have recently uncovered sharp reductions in the supply chain for the upcoming 4-inch model rumored to be names iPhone 5se), which currently suggests only 12-15 million shipments in the calendar year, essentially half of the initial projections of 25-30 million,” BlueFin reported.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 22, 2016 12:38:55 GMT -8
Still haven't read a John Kirk article regarding Apple which I didn't appreciate and agree with. He's always on the money. Thanks for posting it, Rob!
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 21, 2016 16:12:42 GMT -8
So, if I'm reading this correctly, Garcha thinks his price target for AAPL is fine at $140, but he's acknowledging that he was perhaps overzealous in giving his iPhone sales estimate for March and 2016 and also in estimating the gross profit margins. So why does Patrick Seitz headline this as an "Apple investor concern"? Seems to me it's just another honest analyst admitting to everyone that they got it wrong. The fact that it's just a few days before earnings is entirely coincidental. /s
Another Apple investor concern: Gross margin declines BY PATRICK SEITZ
While many Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) investors are worried about iPhone sales falling for the first time ever on a year-over-year basis, Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha has raised another concern: a possible decline in gross profit margins. In a research report Thursday, Garcha cut his iPhone sales estimates for the March quarter and calendar year 2016, and lowered his gross margin forecast for Apple. However, he reiterated his outperform rating on Apple stock, with a price target of 140.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 18, 2016 17:30:07 GMT -8
The coverage of Apple is just so ridiculous. I believe Apple grew their earnings last year more than the "fast-growing Facebook" they refer to. The selling happens to coincide with the 20 crossing the 50 and then a few weeks later dropping below the 200. Excellent use of TA to get out at the right time. Huh? The selling happens to coincide? Three large growth funds sell millions of shares of AAPL over the last 6 months and it's because they used TA to tell them to get out at the right time? How about this instead? Three large growth funds used TA to decide to sell millions of shares of AAPL, thereby contributing to increased (even panic) selling as other holders of AAPL saw the price dropping because of the millions of shares flooding the market. Queue the analysts to start the scare stories about fewer iPhones being sold next quarter to further the selling and shake out any "weak hands" remaining. Call me a non-believer if you must, but I think the funds unloading millions of shares of AAPL over the last part of 2015 played a bigger part in pushing the stock price down to where it is today than did TA. From servo's link: "Growth funds dumping Apple stock as iPhone sales seen sagging; value-managers moving in" www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-funds-iphone-idUSKCN0UT246?type=companyNewsThe Fidelity, American Fund Capital and Hartford Capital growth funds were among the ten largest sellers of Apple over the last six months of 2015.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 17, 2016 21:02:18 GMT -8
And, of course, there's always the non-fang stock: CMG (Chipotle) -59.4% from high.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 14, 2016 9:57:26 GMT -8
Did anyone notice that CMG is up 6% on the CEO's Webcast comments reassuring analysts? Too bad our extremely highly-paid CEO can't take some time doing that, instead of all the other extraneous social justice nonsense. Completely wrong suggestion. Follow the logic - For Chipotle, some really bad shit happened, affected the company terribly, stock got hammered. CEO reassured everyone today that it will get better. If Tim Cook reassures us that all is well, after the stock got hammered, EVERYONE and their brother will be assuming that some bad shit happened and he's getting in front of it. Mark, this short paragraph from yesterday illustrates very clearly how investors react when the CEO steps up to explain that customers are in no danger when they use the company's products. Can't you just imagine investors hearing from the CEO and saying to themselves, "Wait, you mean customers can eat a burrito at Chipotles and NOT need their stomach pumped? Damn. Gotta buy more of that stock! Market Slammed, Amazon, Apple, Netflix Drop by Investor's Business Daily Video 2:40 mins It was an ugly day on Wall St. with a harsh selloff on the indexes. Rail, trucking, airline and consumer discretionary were hit hard. Big names Amazon, Apple and Netflix came under selling pressure. An early rebound in oil faltered as data showed a rise in U.S. inventories. The one market bright spot came when the CEO of Chipotle explained that none of their customers had to be treated for food poisoning for the prior two weeks. This unexpected and welcome news caused investors to rush to buy the stock and pushed CMG up 5.4 percent to $425.94 in afternoon trade on Wednesday. Full Disclosure: The last two sentences in the paragraph above, MAY have not appeared in the original story
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 14, 2016 9:55:49 GMT -8
Deleted
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 9, 2016 20:19:43 GMT -8
Actually, worth several looks and reads, Red, thanks for posting it. Daniel Eran Dilger can write so well about Apple that I don't think I've ever failed to be impressed by the content and logic of his articles. I can't resist the impulse to include a few paragraphs into this post because the entire article was just that good. Jay Yarow of BI=Clickbait legend? Love it!! ================== That's the premise set out by clickbait legend Jay Yarow of Business Insider, who penned a compendium of worries of potential scenarios of doom for the world's largest and most successful tech company, bravely entitled "Apple is going to have a tough year." Apple is essentially the Professor stranded on Gilligan's Island, except that rather than being the intelligent problem solver for a bunch of goofy half-wits stuck on an island, Apple is competing against them in the global market for electronics. BI frets that Apple could possibly face flat growth in iPhone unit sales over the next year. That is, if you believe analysts who, based on December quarter supply chain channel checks, think they know how many phones Apple will sell three months from now, and who are currently contradicting Apple executives' own guidance pertaining to the quarter that just ended.Apple didn't warn analysts and investors that it was facing an end to iPhone growth. Tim Cook did the opposite during the September earnings call, explaining the credible reasons why the growth Apple was seeing with iPhone 6/6s would continue into the future. Cook is neither a member of the media nor an executive for Samsung, so under FTC regulations he can't materially lie about the financial situation of his company and expect to get away with it.But right now, can we stop the handwringing faux-pity over Apple's dire problems of making too much money while selling too many phones with the dire result of being challenged to improve upon that performance? Because that's not a problem, it's every CEO's fantasy.
Thanks again for posting it!
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 9, 2016 19:58:32 GMT -8
At least we've got some hedgies on our side (long): beanstockd.com/apple-inc-aapl-shares-bought-by-eqis-capital-management/233759/I think this upcoming week will be rebound week. Lowest RSI we've had in a long, long time and the selling from China implosion was overdone. Back above 100 then we'll end the week fighting the 100-105 range. In retrospect, I should've done deep ITM calls and sold calls against them each month to reduce cost basis, instead of buying ~6 months out APR calls at 115. Might still workout, at least breakeven, if we can claw our way back to 115+. Earnings tractor beam perhaps... As a final thought, any trader not incorporating technical analysis into their trading plan will have pain. I think a big insight for me was realizing in no way should I be thinking about investing or being an investor, but rather, trading. Fundamentals are dead (mostly). Got to think what are the algos up to and the self fulfilling prophecies of TA take over their program logic. Be a minnow and swim with the sharks. With the current stock market, anything is possible so you may be correct and all good TA traders will end up wealthy whereas AAPL Longs will regret staying the course. But so far, investing (using fundamentals) has worked quite well for many on the board. I believe I understand what you're saying about not trying to buck the market momentum but I think there may be a place for both schools of thought. We'll see what happens over the next few years. Good luck with your trading!
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 8, 2016 11:35:54 GMT -8
This is worth reading. I've included a few excerpts below the link. Wall Street is missing Apple's Secret Weapon=> The ‘dead’ Mac alone will generate revenue greater than 35% of Google’s total revenue in 2015 and nearly double Facebook’s revenue from 2015. => It’s a fact that over 60% of Apple’s revenue comes from the iPhone. It’s also a fact that iPhone sales increased every quarter in fiscal 2015 compared to 2014. => Apple has increased spending in R&D by 90% over the last two-years. Yes, the largest company in the world has nearly doubled its investment in innovation. => Mac sales alone in the last four quarters have hit $25 billion. This product alone is larger than all of Facebook’s revenue ($16 billion) and is 35% of all of Google’s revenue. Yes, the 'dead Mac’ is 35% of Google. => Then there’s the 'failed’ Apple Watch which will generate revenue larger than all of Facebook’s profits in all of 2016, twice over. And, remember, it’s version two of Apple products that start the meteoric sales growth. Version two of Watch is due out this March.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 8, 2016 11:17:44 GMT -8
Red, everything was good until I got to this part: Alphabet would definitely be my choice if I had to give X amount of $ to a company and should choose the one that is most likely to use it in a way that benefits mankind. Alphabet is really trying to improve people's lives, to save lives, possibly even to extend life, and that's because it has fantastic founders who are still practically in control. If Tim Cook wanted to spend billions of dollars on, say, medical technologies, his shareholders simply wouldn't allow him to do that. Also, if someone asked me which of those companies has the greatest potential upside, I would bet on GOOG. But... the current PE ratio just makes it very expensive. I don't mean to say it's worth less, but at its current price it's just not a steal, unlike AAPL.That one paragraph made me question his thought process and reasoning ability. I was almost expecting him to include their now discarded catch phrase, "Don't be evil"* as another reason to invest in GOOG. I mean, he may be right about them...but I don't think so. * en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_be_evil
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 7, 2016 18:08:26 GMT -8
Hey my bottom was 97. Not there yet, and let's see where we close today. My bottom is red, raw, and aching after the last few days Whoa...TMI, Mark!
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 7, 2016 12:28:34 GMT -8
Interesting times. So, in the midst of this current slide, I have to remind myself that in a 5-10 year horizon, no one is better positioned to succeed than Apple. It happened over the last 5 years, and I believe it will continue to happen. This.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 5, 2016 7:55:19 GMT -8
As usual, PED has some interesting charts and the right response to brainless FUD. “One of the big four will falter in 2016,” predicts Fred Wilson, one of New York’s most prominent venture capitalists (Twitter, Tumblr, Kickstarter, etc.), without specifying which four companies he means.
“My guess,” he says, “is Apple. They did not have a great year in 2015 and I’m thinking that it will get worse in 2016.”
PED: Huh?Apple's Bizarre Valuation: Something's Got to Give by Philip Elmer-DeWittfortune.com/2016/01/05/apple-valuation-cash-flow/?xid=yahoo_fortune
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 4, 2016 11:52:31 GMT -8
You are all cordially invited to donate to the "rickag Charitable Fund of Financial Wrongheadedness" for causing the immediate turn around in AAPL. The very second I put in a low ball bid for AAPL, AAPL began its ascent. I swear that there is an international conspiracy that is well funded to follow my every financial move and block me from making a buck. Thanks for the laugh, rickag.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 29, 2015 8:13:51 GMT -8
Wait. Apple is killing it by selling more devices during Christmas than all of it's competitors, but according to CNBC, "Apple has tough road ahead": Analyst at CNBC (Tue 10:01AM EST)? Oh, I get it. They're at 49.1% domination this year but they were at 51.3% last year so their domination is declining. Yep. Checks out. /s
1. "Apple wins Christmas, again" at American City Business Journals (Tue 10:15AM EST) Apple accounted for 49 percent of all new devices activated during Christmas week, down slightly from 51.3 percent of devices activated at the same time last year, according to a report out from Flurry Insights.
2. "Here’s How Apple Devices Dominated Christmas Week" at Fortune (Tue 8:13AM EST) According to Flurry, Apple took the top spot in Christmas week activations again this year, with 49.1% of all new devices activated between Dec. 19 and Dec. 25. That’s down slightly from last year’s 51.3% in a market that’s still expanding. Flurry doesn’t offer unit sales estimates, but earlier this month research firm IDC projected that by the end of 2015 the worldwide market for smartphones would have grown 9.8% to 1.43 billion units. iPhone sales, according to IDC, were expected to grow 17.3%. At that rate, Apple could be headed for another record quarter.
3. Apple's Christmas Victory Over Android at Forbes (Tue 7:39AM EST) The 2015 holiday season has seen a huge number of mobile devices being given as presents, and Apple has accounted for nearly half of those activations, enough to give it victory over the army of Android devices. That’s the conclusion of a report from mobile analytics firm Flurry, which hands Cupertino 49.1 percent of all mobile activation between 18 December 2015 and 25 December 2015.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 28, 2015 12:07:51 GMT -8
For my sins, I was recently elected to my city council. It is a small city of about 25,000 with just enough problems to make it interesting, but not anything serious enough that I can do damage. They ran a piece in the paper called "Getting to know your new Councillor" I had to answer a bunch of questions like, "What would you do if you won the Lottery?" My answer was "Keep investing in Apple until it was all gone" Congratulations, bud777! Your town will surely benefit from having you on it's city council. I've always appreciated your views on Apple and AAPL so I'm sure you meant, "Keep investing in Apple until I'd doubled my winnings."
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 26, 2015 17:19:59 GMT -8
Not to be a downer, but in our house no new Apple products. We do have new iPhones and Apple watches but they were bought months ago. No iMacs, iPads, or MacBooks. I guess the Apple TV is new. Found out my two friends who were excited about their Apple Watches initially, have both returned them. For one it was hard to justify cost, since her fitbit did the job. The other just loved her Movado collection too much and found the Apple Watch to hard to learn and too slow. Hope these two are unique. Relax, sponge. My wife and I both love our Apple Watches, thereby canceling the experience of your two friends. We're now back to even for small sample size experiences with the Apple Watch. Given the slowing in iPhone growth from last year, I think we could be in for another long year of going nowhere. I still see a 30% move from the lows to the next set of highs. We will see the RSI back to 80 and I hope that happens in the next 4 months. Are we truly having problems with our stock going nowhere because of slowing in iPhone growth, or is it investor fear, created and abetted by FUD writers (and analysts)? Unless you have a an innate ability to foresee future iPhone sales, as apparently analysts that have commented over the last couple of weeks do, I wouldn't be so quick to assume iPhone sales growth is over.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 24, 2015 12:12:22 GMT -8
Just got an Ipad Pro... It's freakin awesome servo, we got one several weeks back and agree with you about the awesomeness. My only disappointment is the unavailability of the Apple Pencil and the Smart Keyboard. It should have been a no-brainer to have those available for iPad Pro buyers. Whenever I check the online Apple Store, all I see availability to ship in 3 to 4 weeks. :-(
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 21, 2015 13:16:19 GMT -8
Thank goodness Zachs is not using supplier data to project guess Apple Inc.'s future success. Instead they're just telling us what's common knowledge. No need for Tim Cook to divulge sales of the Apple watch because somehow they know that the Apple Watch totally flopped and, in fact, sales have PLUMMETED 90% since it was released. This will really take the pressure off of Tim Cook. Serious question: Why do people get paid to write this crap? ============ 3 Ways Apple Can Turn It Around in 2016 By Ryan McQueeney 1. Forget the Watch
One would certainly be hard pressed to say that Apple has a hard time “admitting its failures,” simply because the company has so few. However, it does seem like Apple takes pride in its innovative culture and would not be quick to admit that one of its products flopped. And by now we know that the Apple Watch totally flopped.
If you watched the 60 Minutes special about Apple last night, you may have noticed a rather awkward moment between Charlie Rose and Tim Cook when Rose brought up the Apple Watch. While Rose was careful not to proclaim it as a flop himself, he did question whether the product needed “improvement.” Cook casually avoided the question.
Also read: Apple Watch Not Compelling? Sales Decline 90%
So, the first thing Apple can do in 2016 is to move on from the Apple Watch. Its sales have absolutely plummeted since its launch and it seems like too much of a niche product to have a serious impact. Apple needs to focus on roping in new customers that don’t already have iPhones, and the Watch is just not the product to do that. What a load of crap! First of all, the watch is just an accessory ... it only works with an iPhone. Second of all, for an accessory, it ALREADY sold more than all other accessories EVER sold. Third of all, how the heck does anyone know if sales dropped 90%? Sales obviously always drop from initial introduction, but eventually they stabilize. Mark!...Mark! Did I screw up by not ending my post with a "/s"? I thought I was covered by: "Serious question: Why do people get paid to write this crap?"
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